What will happen to house prices in 2024?

What will happen to house prices in 2024?

"We estimate increases during the first quarter of the year and, from there, it is likely that we will see downward fluctuations in some communities with lower demand and less tourist attraction, due to the interannual comparison of high variations presented in 2023." In practice, these drops will not be massive price drops. "After the anomalous increases - up to 10.8% in June 2023 -, the price will simply be returning to the starting point," clarifies the Fotocasa spokesperson.

CONCENTRIC CIRCLES

House prices will stabilize

They point out that little by little the impact of the rise in interest rates is being transferred to the real economy. "The rates are currently at their highest level for 15 years and their impact is being transmitted with some delay to the price of housing." The economic analysis house of the financial entity expects a slowdown of 1.4% during 2024, in the appraisal value of free housing monitored by the Ministry of Housing.

No expert consulted expects large falls in prices, at least in nominal terms. In real terms, including inflation, there are unknowns. "It will depend on the evolution of inflation, currently subject to uncertainty due to its dependence on the evolution of energy prices in an international context of war in Ukraine and Gaza," explains the director of Tinsa's research service. "The advance in nominal terms that we expect for 2024 is 1.4%, a figure lower than inflation, which will be above 3%, which implies a decrease in housing prices in real terms," ​​housing of new construction "could experience a small growth in real terms."